Ipswich 2–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Accrington ST

C. Chaplin 65'

W. Burns 23'

E. Hamilton 15'

1/22/2022

League One · Round 29Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich56%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.90

Ipswich

1.69

Accrington ST

0.90

Ipswich creates 88% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 107 away

1.70

creates per match

0.96

0.83

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

44%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

31%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

82%

Ipswich 2+ goals

50%

Ipswich 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

59%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

23%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

74%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ipswich scores more

56%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

20%

Ipswich at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Hamilton

Accrington ST · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

15'

23'

52'

58'

65'

C. Chaplin↳ J. Donacien

73'

T. Bakinson← T. Carroll

73'

R. Longelo-Mbule← S. McConville

76'

J. Norwood← M. Bonne

76'

D. Morgan← H. Pell

79'

L. Mansell← J. OSullivan

83'

Rosaire Longelo

87'

George Edmundson

89'

Bersant Celina

90+1'

K. Jackson← C. Chaplin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichAccrington

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots13

1Corners6

13Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target4

6Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

455Total Passes290

332Accurate Passes150

73%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2