Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ipswich Town W vs Charlton Athletic W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Ipswich Town W
Ipswich Town W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Charlton Athletic W
Charlton Athletic W
1/14/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundAGL Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ipswich Town W52%
×Draw21%
Charlton Athletic W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich Town W
2.17
Charlton Athletic W
1.51

Ipswich Town W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ipswich Town W
3.54
Charlton Athletic W
2.40

allows per match

Ipswich Town W
0.62
Charlton Athletic W
0.80

finishing

Ipswich Town W+0.00on par
Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Town W ↓

Charlton Athletic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ipswich Town W or draw
73%
Ipswich Town W or Charlton Athletic W
79%
Draw or Charlton Athletic W
48%

Winning margin

Ipswich Town W wins by 2+
31%
Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ipswich Town W 1+ goals
89%
Ipswich Town W 2+ goals
64%
Ipswich Town W 3+ goals
36%
Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals
78%
Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals
44%
Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)
66%
Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Town W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Charlton Athletic W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Town W attack 3.54 + Charlton Athletic W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.17

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.40 + Ipswich Town W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ipswich Town W scores more
52%
level
21%
Charlton Athletic W scores more
27%

Ipswich Town W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Ipswich Town W 1–4 Charlton Athletic W

Charlton Athletic W beat Ipswich Town W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at AGL Arena in Felixstowe, Suffolk.