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Ipswich Knights vs Western Pride — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
FT
0 – 2
Western Pride
Western Pride
6/8/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 12Stan McCrea Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ipswich Knights36%
×Draw22%
Western Pride43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich Knights
1.79
Western Pride
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ipswich Knights
1.65
Western Pride
1.66

allows per match

Ipswich Knights
2.25
Western Pride
1.94

finishing

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Knights ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ipswich Knights or draw
57%
Ipswich Knights or Western Pride
78%
Draw or Western Pride
64%

Winning margin

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
18%
Western Pride wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
83%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
53%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
26%
Western Pride 1+ goals
86%
Western Pride 2+ goals
58%
Western Pride 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
46%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.79

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ipswich Knights scores more
36%
level
22%
Western Pride scores more
43%

Western Pride at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich Knights vs Western Pride

Western Pride beat Ipswich Knights 2-0 in Queensland Premier League on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stan McCrea Field 1 in Ebbw Vale.