Ipswich Knights vs Redlands United — Queensland Premier League 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Ipswich Knights28%
Redlands United52%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Redlands United creates 39% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes72
- No28
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ipswich Knights ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches
Redlands United away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + Redlands United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63
Redlands United attack 2.27 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Redlands United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Broadbeach United
Brisbane Strikers
SC Wanderers
Robina City
Ipswich
CabooltureRedlands United
Holland Park Hawks
Logan Lightning
North Star
St George Willawong
CapalabaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ipswich Knights host Redlands United on Sunday, 24 July 2022 at 05:15. The match is part of the Queensland Premier League 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Ipswich Knights vs Redlands United
Ipswich Knights and Redlands United drew 3-3 in Queensland Premier League on July 24, 2022.
The match was played at Eric Evans Oval in Brisbane.