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Ipswich Knights vs Holland Park Hawks — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
FT
7 – 0
Holland Park Hawks
Holland Park Hawks
4/30/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 6Eric Evans Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ipswich Knights39%
×Draw21%
Holland Park Hawks40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich Knights
1.97
Holland Park Hawks
1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ipswich Knights
1.65
Holland Park Hawks
1.73

allows per match

Ipswich Knights
2.25
Holland Park Hawks
2.30

finishing

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par
Holland Park Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Knights ↓

Holland Park Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ipswich Knights or draw
60%
Ipswich Knights or Holland Park Hawks
79%
Draw or Holland Park Hawks
61%

Winning margin

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
21%
Holland Park Hawks wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
86%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
58%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
31%
Holland Park Hawks 1+ goals
86%
Holland Park Hawks 2+ goals
59%
Holland Park Hawks 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
50%
Holland Park Hawks (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

Holland Park Hawks away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + Holland Park Hawks defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.97

Holland Park Hawks attack 1.73 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ipswich Knights scores more
39%
level
21%
Holland Park Hawks scores more
40%

Holland Park Hawks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Holland Park Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich Knights vs Holland Park Hawks

Ipswich Knights beat Holland Park Hawks 7-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Eric Evans Oval in Brisbane.