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IPS Edustus vs MiPK — Suomen Cup 2018

IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
MiPK
MiPK
4/20/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundUkonniemi-areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IPS Edustus10%
×Draw14%
MiPK75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IPS Edustus
1.02
MiPK
2.92

MiPK creates 186% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

IPS Edustus
1.25
MiPK
3.60

allows per match

IPS Edustus
2.25
MiPK
0.80

finishing

IPS Edustus+0.00on par
MiPK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IPS Edustus ↓

MiPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

IPS Edustus or draw
25%
IPS Edustus or MiPK
86%
Draw or MiPK
90%

Winning margin

IPS Edustus wins by 2+
3%
MiPK wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

IPS Edustus 1+ goals
64%
IPS Edustus 2+ goals
27%
IPS Edustus 3+ goals
8%
MiPK 1+ goals
94%
MiPK 2+ goals
78%
MiPK 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

IPS Edustus (draw refunded)
12%
MiPK (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IPS Edustus at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

MiPK away — creates 3.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IPS Edustus attack 1.25 + MiPK defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

MiPK attack 3.60 + IPS Edustus defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

IPS Edustus scores more
10%
level
14%
MiPK scores more
75%

MiPK at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "MiPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: IPS Edustus 0–1 MiPK

MiPK beat IPS Edustus 1-0 in Suomen Cup on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ukonniemi-areena TN in Imatra.