IPS Edustus 0–2 JJK: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

IPS Edustus

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

JJK

4/26/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundUkonniemi-areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IPS Edustus21%

×Draw21%

JJK59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IPS EdustusExpected goals in this matchJJK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.13

IPS Edustus

1.19

JJK

2.13

JJK creates 79% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

2.00

2.25

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

IPS Edustus

1.25

JJK

2.00

allows per match

IPS Edustus

2.25

JJK

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IPS Edustus+0.00on par

JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IPS Edustus ↓

JJK →

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

IPS Edustus or draw

41%

IPS Edustus or JJK

79%

Draw or JJK

79%

Winning margin

IPS Edustus wins by 2+

JJK wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

IPS Edustus 1+ goals

70%

IPS Edustus 2+ goals

33%

IPS Edustus 3+ goals

12%

JJK 1+ goals

88%

JJK 2+ goals

63%

JJK 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

IPS Edustus (draw refunded)

26%

JJK (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

IPS Edustus at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

JJK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

IPS Edustus attack 1.25 + JJK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

JJK attack 2.00 + IPS Edustus defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

IPS Edustus scores more

21%

level

21%

JJK scores more

59%

JJK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff