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IPS Edustus vs FC Komeetat — Suomen Cup 2018

IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
4/15/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundAviasport Areena Oy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

IPS Edustus18%
×Draw16%
FC Komeetat66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IPS Edustus
1.63
FC Komeetat
3.13

FC Komeetat creates 92% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

IPS Edustus
1.25
FC Komeetat
4.00

allows per match

IPS Edustus
2.25
FC Komeetat
2.00

finishing

IPS Edustus+0.00on par
FC Komeetat+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IPS Edustus ↓

FC Komeetat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

IPS Edustus or draw
34%
IPS Edustus or FC Komeetat
84%
Draw or FC Komeetat
82%

Winning margin

IPS Edustus wins by 2+
8%
FC Komeetat wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

IPS Edustus 1+ goals
80%
IPS Edustus 2+ goals
48%
IPS Edustus 3+ goals
22%
FC Komeetat 1+ goals
95%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
81%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

IPS Edustus (draw refunded)
21%
FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IPS Edustus at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

FC Komeetat away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IPS Edustus attack 1.25 + FC Komeetat defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Komeetat attack 4.00 + IPS Edustus defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

IPS Edustus scores more
18%
level
16%
FC Komeetat scores more
66%

FC Komeetat at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Komeetat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: IPS Edustus 0–6 FC Komeetat

FC Komeetat beat IPS Edustus 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Aviasport Areena Oy in Imatra.