Iporá 2–2 União Rondonópolis: Result & Stats

Iporá

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

União Rondonópolis

Lucas 61'

Du Gaia 2'

Thomás 53' (pen)

Geandro 11'

4/27/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Francisco José Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Iporá53%

×Draw24%

União Rondonópolis23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IporáExpected goals in this matchUnião Rondonópolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.04

Iporá

1.69

União Rondonópolis

1.04

Iporá creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

0.97

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Iporá

1.67

União Rondonópolis

1.10

allows per match

Iporá

0.97

União Rondonópolis

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iporá+0.00on par

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iporá ↓

União Rondonópolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Iporá or draw

77%

Iporá or União Rondonópolis

76%

Draw or União Rondonópolis

47%

Winning margin

Iporá wins by 2+

28%

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Iporá 1+ goals

82%

Iporá 2+ goals

50%

Iporá 3+ goals

24%

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals

65%

União Rondonópolis 2+ goals

28%

União Rondonópolis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Iporá (draw refunded)

69%

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iporá at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

União Rondonópolis away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.72 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iporá attack 1.67 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

União Rondonópolis attack 1.10 + Iporá defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Iporá scores more

53%

level

24%

União Rondonópolis scores more

23%

Iporá at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Iporá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Du Gaia

11'

Geandro

53'

Carlos Eduardo← Coquinho

53'

ThomásPenalty

58'

Deivisson Pikachu← Brener

61'

Lucas

69'

Maranhão← Daniel Felizardo

73'

Felipe Alves← Danillo Ribeiro

80'

Henrique← Lucas

80'

Tiago Pará← Caio

85'

Willian Barão← Índio

Iporá

União

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Kiko

53'▲Carlos Eduardo←▼Coquinho

73'▲Felipe Alves←▼Danillo Ribeiro

80'▲Henrique←▼Lucas

80'▲Tiago Pará←▼Caio

Iporá substitutes

EduardoAlvesHenriqueParáSamuelFilhoDiogoVictor

Manager: Luciano Dias

58'▲Deivisson Pikachu←▼Brener

69'▲Maranhão←▼Daniel Felizardo

85'▲Willian Barão←▼Índio

União Rondonópolis substitutes

PikachuMaranhãoBarãoEliasDaviGalonLucãoKaua