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Iporá vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Iporá
Iporá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Palmas
Palmas
6/1/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Francisco José Ferreira (Iporá, Goiás)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Iporá59%
×Draw22%
Palmas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iporá
1.98
Palmas
1.02

Iporá creates 94% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

creates per match

Iporá
1.67
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Iporá
0.97
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Iporá+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iporá ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Iporá or draw
81%
Iporá or Palmas
78%
Draw or Palmas
41%

Winning margin

Iporá wins by 2+
36%
Palmas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Iporá 1+ goals
86%
Iporá 2+ goals
59%
Iporá 3+ goals
31%
Palmas 1+ goals
64%
Palmas 2+ goals
27%
Palmas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iporá (draw refunded)
76%
Palmas (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iporá at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iporá attack 1.67 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Palmas attack 1.06 + Iporá defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Iporá scores more
59%
level
22%
Palmas scores more
19%

Iporá at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Iporá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Iporá 1–0 Palmas

Iporá beat Palmas 1-0 in Serie D on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco José Ferreira (Iporá, Goiás).