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Ipatinga vs America Mineiro — Mineiro - 1 2020

Ipatinga
Ipatinga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
2/18/2023Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio João Lamego Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ipatinga30%
×Draw26%
America Mineiro44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga
1.14
America Mineiro
1.46

America Mineiro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ipatinga
1.33
America Mineiro
1.35

allows per match

Ipatinga
1.56
America Mineiro
0.95

finishing

Ipatinga+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ipatinga or draw
56%
Ipatinga or America Mineiro
74%
Draw or America Mineiro
70%

Winning margin

Ipatinga wins by 2+
12%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ipatinga 1+ goals
68%
Ipatinga 2+ goals
32%
Ipatinga 3+ goals
11%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
77%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
43%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga (draw refunded)
40%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga attack 1.33 + America Mineiro defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

America Mineiro attack 1.35 + Ipatinga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ipatinga scores more
30%
level
26%
America Mineiro scores more
44%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipatinga vs America Mineiro

Ipatinga and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 1 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio João Lamego Neto in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais.