Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ipatinga U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tres Coracoes U20
Tres Coracoes U20
5/19/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 2Campo do Capelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ipatinga U2017%
×Draw18%
Tres Coracoes U2065%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga U20
1.22
Tres Coracoes U20
2.50

Tres Coracoes U20 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ipatinga U20
0.29
Tres Coracoes U20
1.86

allows per match

Ipatinga U20
3.14
Tres Coracoes U20
2.14

finishing

Ipatinga U20+0.00on par
Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ipatinga U20 or draw
35%
Ipatinga U20 or Tres Coracoes U20
82%
Draw or Tres Coracoes U20
83%

Winning margin

Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
7%
Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
70%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
34%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
12%
Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals
92%
Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals
71%
Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
21%
Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga U20 at home — creates 0.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.29 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Ipatinga U20 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ipatinga U20 scores more
17%
level
18%
Tres Coracoes U20 scores more
65%

Tres Coracoes U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tres Coracoes U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipatinga U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20

Tres Coracoes U20 beat Ipatinga U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo do Capelão in Betim, Minas Gerais.