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Ipatinga U20 vs Inter de Minas U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Inter de Minas U20
Inter de Minas U20
Unknown 90+1', 85', 70', 65', 32', 20'
7/21/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 11Campo do Capelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ipatinga U2014%
×Draw17%
Inter de Minas U2069%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga U20
0.99
Inter de Minas U20
2.45

Inter de Minas U20 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ipatinga U20
0.29
Inter de Minas U20
1.75

allows per match

Ipatinga U20
3.14
Inter de Minas U20
1.70

finishing

Ipatinga U20+0.00on par
Inter de Minas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga U20 ↓

Inter de Minas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ipatinga U20 or draw
31%
Ipatinga U20 or Inter de Minas U20
83%
Draw or Inter de Minas U20
86%

Winning margin

Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
5%
Inter de Minas U20 wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
63%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
26%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
8%
Inter de Minas U20 1+ goals
91%
Inter de Minas U20 2+ goals
70%
Inter de Minas U20 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
16%
Inter de Minas U20 (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga U20 at home — creates 0.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Inter de Minas U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.29 + Inter de Minas U20 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Inter de Minas U20 attack 1.75 + Ipatinga U20 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ipatinga U20 scores more
14%
level
17%
Inter de Minas U20 scores more
69%

Inter de Minas U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Inter de Minas U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
32'
65'
70'
82'
85'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipatinga U20 vs Inter de Minas U20

Inter de Minas U20 beat Ipatinga U20 6-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 21, 2024.

Goals: ? (20', 32', 65', 70', 85', 90+1').

The match was played at Campo do Capelão in Betim, Minas Gerais.