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Ipatinga U20 vs Coimbra U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coimbra U20
Coimbra U20
Gabriel Gomes 90+3'
6/16/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 6Campo do Capelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ipatinga U2014%
×Draw19%
Coimbra U2067%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga U20
0.91
Coimbra U20
2.24

Coimbra U20 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ipatinga U20
0.29
Coimbra U20
1.33

allows per match

Ipatinga U20
3.14
Coimbra U20
1.52

finishing

Ipatinga U20+0.00on par
Coimbra U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga U20 ↓

Coimbra U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ipatinga U20 or draw
33%
Ipatinga U20 or Coimbra U20
81%
Draw or Coimbra U20
86%

Winning margin

Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
4%
Coimbra U20 wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
60%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
23%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
6%
Coimbra U20 1+ goals
89%
Coimbra U20 2+ goals
65%
Coimbra U20 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
17%
Coimbra U20 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga U20 at home — creates 0.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Coimbra U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.29 + Coimbra U20 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 0.91

Coimbra U20 attack 1.33 + Ipatinga U20 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ipatinga U20 scores more
14%
level
19%
Coimbra U20 scores more
67%

Coimbra U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Coimbra U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'
Gabriel Gomes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Ipatinga U20 0–1 Coimbra U20

Coimbra U20 beat Ipatinga U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 16, 2024.

Goals: Gabriel Gomes (90+3').

The match was played at Campo do Capelão in Betim, Minas Gerais.