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Ipatinga U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 5
Atlético Mineiro U20
Atlético Mineiro U20
Unknown 90+3', 90+1', 89', 31', 22', 9', 3', 1'
5/25/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ipatinga U207%
×Draw13%
Atlético Mineiro U2080%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga U20
0.71
Atlético Mineiro U20
2.82

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 297% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ipatinga U20
0.29
Atlético Mineiro U20
2.50

allows per match

Ipatinga U20
3.14
Atlético Mineiro U20
1.13

finishing

Ipatinga U20+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga U20 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–212%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ipatinga U20 or draw
20%
Ipatinga U20 or Atlético Mineiro U20
87%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U20
93%

Winning margin

Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
2%
Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
51%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
16%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
4%
Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals
94%
Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals
77%
Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
8%
Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga U20 at home — creates 0.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Atlético Mineiro U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.29 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.71

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.50 + Ipatinga U20 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Ipatinga U20 scores more
7%
level
13%
Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more
80%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
3'
9'
22'
31'
89'
90+1'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Ipatinga U20 0–8 Atlético Mineiro U20

Atlético Mineiro U20 beat Ipatinga U20 8-0 in Mineiro U20 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: ? (1', 3', 9', 22', 31', 89', 90+1', 90+3').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.