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Ballyclare Comrades vs Ballinamallard United — Championship 2018

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
2 – 0
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
9/7/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades29%
×Draw24%
Ballinamallard United48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
1.30
Ballinamallard United
1.74

Ballinamallard United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
1.38
Ballinamallard United
1.33

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.15
Ballinamallard United
1.22

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Ballinamallard United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
52%
Ballyclare Comrades or Ballinamallard United
76%
Draw or Ballinamallard United
71%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
12%
Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
73%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
37%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
14%
Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
82%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
52%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
38%
Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.38 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ballinamallard United attack 1.33 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
29%
level
24%
Ballinamallard United scores more
48%

Ballinamallard United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Ballyclare Comrades 2–0 Ballinamallard United

Ballyclare Comrades beat Ballinamallard United 2-0 in Championship on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Dixon Park in Ballyclare.