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Ballinamallard United vs Ballyclare Comrades — League #407 2026

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
D. Barker 90'
C. Moorehead 84'
Byrne 80'
A. Holder 57'
8/10/2024League #407League #407 · Round 1Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ballinamallard United48%
×Draw23%
Ballyclare Comrades30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballinamallard United
1.83
Ballyclare Comrades
1.40

Ballinamallard United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ballinamallard United
1.81
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74

allows per match

Ballinamallard United
1.06
Ballyclare Comrades
1.84

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par
Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw
70%
Ballinamallard United or Ballyclare Comrades
77%
Draw or Ballyclare Comrades
52%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
26%
Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
84%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
54%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
28%
Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
75%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
41%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
62%
Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 1.81 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.74 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more
48%
level
23%
Ballyclare Comrades scores more
30%

Ballinamallard United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
A. Holder
80'
Byrne
84'
C. Moorehead
90'
D. Barker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Ballinamallard United 4–0 Ballyclare Comrades

Ballinamallard United beat Ballyclare Comrades 4-0 in League #407 on August 10, 2024.

Goals: A. Holder (57'), Byrne (80'), C. Moorehead (84'), D. Barker (90').

The match was played at Ferney Park in Ballinamallard.