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Ionikos vs PAS Giannina — Super League 1 2018

Ionikos
Ionikos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
4/29/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 5Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ionikos44%
×Draw27%
PAS Giannina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ionikos
1.36
PAS Giannina
1.06

Ionikos creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ionikos
1.13
PAS Giannina
0.88

allows per match

Ionikos
1.25
PAS Giannina
1.59

finishing

Ionikos+0.00on par
PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ionikos ↓

PAS Giannina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ionikos or draw
71%
Ionikos or PAS Giannina
73%
Draw or PAS Giannina
56%

Winning margin

Ionikos wins by 2+
20%
PAS Giannina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ionikos 1+ goals
74%
Ionikos 2+ goals
39%
Ionikos 3+ goals
16%
PAS Giannina 1+ goals
65%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
29%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ionikos (draw refunded)
60%
PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ionikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ionikos attack 1.13 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Ionikos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ionikos scores more
44%
level
27%
PAS Giannina scores more
29%

Ionikos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ionikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Ionikos 0–1 PAS Giannina

PAS Giannina beat Ionikos 1-0 in Super League 1 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Athens.