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Invincible Eleven vs Watanga — LFA First Division 2020

Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Watanga
Watanga
10/30/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Invincible Eleven25%
×Draw26%
Watanga48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Invincible Eleven
0.98
Watanga
1.46

Watanga creates 49% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 74 away

creates per match

Invincible Eleven
1.20
Watanga
1.57

allows per match

Invincible Eleven
1.35
Watanga
0.77

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par
Watanga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

Watanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw
52%
Invincible Eleven or Watanga
74%
Draw or Watanga
75%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
9%
Watanga wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
62%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
26%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
8%
Watanga 1+ goals
77%
Watanga 2+ goals
43%
Watanga 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
34%
Watanga (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Watanga away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.77 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + Watanga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Watanga attack 1.57 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more
25%
level
26%
Watanga scores more
48%

Watanga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Invincible Eleven 1–2 Watanga

Watanga beat Invincible Eleven 2-1 in LFA First Division on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.