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Invincible Eleven vs Global Pharma — LFA First Division 2020

Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Global Pharma
Global Pharma
2/29/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 19Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Invincible Eleven43%
×Draw26%
Global Pharma30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Invincible Eleven
1.42
Global Pharma
1.14

Invincible Eleven creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 26 away

creates per match

Invincible Eleven
1.20
Global Pharma
0.92

allows per match

Invincible Eleven
1.35
Global Pharma
1.65

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par
Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

Global Pharma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw
70%
Invincible Eleven or Global Pharma
74%
Draw or Global Pharma
57%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
21%
Global Pharma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
76%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
41%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
17%
Global Pharma 1+ goals
68%
Global Pharma 2+ goals
32%
Global Pharma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
59%
Global Pharma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more
43%
level
26%
Global Pharma scores more
30%

Invincible Eleven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Invincible Eleven 1–1 Global Pharma

Invincible Eleven and Global Pharma drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.