Invincible Eleven 0–2 Fassell: Result & Stats

Invincible Eleven

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fassell

11/28/2024

LFA First Division · Round 11Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Invincible Eleven22%

×Draw25%

Fassell53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Invincible ElevenExpected goals in this matchFassell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.62

Invincible Eleven

0.94

Fassell

1.62

Fassell creates 72% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

1.20

creates per match

1.89

1.35

allows per match

0.68

creates per match

Invincible Eleven

1.20

Fassell

1.89

allows per match

Invincible Eleven

1.35

Fassell

0.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Fassell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Invincible Eleven ↓

Fassell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Invincible Eleven or draw

47%

Invincible Eleven or Fassell

75%

Draw or Fassell

78%

Winning margin

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+

7%

Fassell wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals

61%

Invincible Eleven 2+ goals

24%

Invincible Eleven 3+ goals

7%

Fassell 1+ goals

80%

Fassell 2+ goals

48%

Fassell 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)

29%

Fassell (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Invincible Eleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Fassell away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Invincible Eleven attack 1.20 + Fassell defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Fassell attack 1.89 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Invincible Eleven scores more

22%

level

25%

Fassell scores more

53%

Fassell at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fassell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff