Inverurie Loco Works 0–2 Sauchie Juniors

Inverurie Loco Works

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sauchie Juniors

9/27/2025

FA Cup · 1st RoundHarlaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inverurie Loco Works18%

×Draw21%

Sauchie Juniors61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverurie Loco WorksExpected goals in this matchSauchie Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

2.00

Inverurie Loco Works

0.98

Sauchie Juniors

2.00

Sauchie Juniors creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

0.75

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Inverurie Loco Works

0.75

Sauchie Juniors

2.00

allows per match

Inverurie Loco Works

2.00

Sauchie Juniors

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverurie Loco Works ↓

Sauchie Juniors →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inverurie Loco Works or draw

39%

Inverurie Loco Works or Sauchie Juniors

79%

Draw or Sauchie Juniors

82%

Winning margin

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

62%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

26%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals

86%

Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals

59%

Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

23%

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inverurie Loco Works at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Sauchie Juniors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inverurie Loco Works attack 0.75 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.00 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

18%

level

21%

Sauchie Juniors scores more

61%

Sauchie Juniors at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Inverurie

Sauchie

Manager: Dean Donaldson

Manager: F. Duncan