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Inverurie Loco Works vs Jeanfield Swifts — FA Cup 2019

Inverurie Loco Works
Inverurie Loco Works
FT
0 – 3
Jeanfield Swifts
Jeanfield Swifts
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundHarlaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inverurie Loco Works16%
×Draw19%
Jeanfield Swifts65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverurie Loco Works
1.09
Jeanfield Swifts
2.35

Jeanfield Swifts creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Inverurie Loco Works
0.75
Jeanfield Swifts
2.71

allows per match

Inverurie Loco Works
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
1.43

finishing

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par
Jeanfield Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverurie Loco Works ↓

Jeanfield Swifts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Inverurie Loco Works or draw
35%
Inverurie Loco Works or Jeanfield Swifts
81%
Draw or Jeanfield Swifts
84%

Winning margin

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+
6%
Jeanfield Swifts wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals
66%
Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals
30%
Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals
10%
Jeanfield Swifts 1+ goals
90%
Jeanfield Swifts 2+ goals
68%
Jeanfield Swifts 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)
20%
Jeanfield Swifts (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverurie Loco Works at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Jeanfield Swifts away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverurie Loco Works attack 0.75 + Jeanfield Swifts defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Jeanfield Swifts attack 2.71 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Inverurie Loco Works scores more
16%
level
19%
Jeanfield Swifts scores more
65%

Jeanfield Swifts at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jeanfield Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inverurie Loco Works vs Jeanfield Swifts

Jeanfield Swifts beat Inverurie Loco Works 3-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Harlaw Park in Inverurie.