Inverurie Loco Works 1–1 Dundee North End

Inverurie Loco Works

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dundee North End

J. Halliday 17'

C. Blacklock 101'

J. Ferguson 97'

F. Devine 30'

10/26/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundHarlaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inverurie Loco Works25%

×Draw23%

Dundee North End52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverurie Loco WorksExpected goals in this matchDundee North End

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.83

Inverurie Loco Works

1.21

Dundee North End

1.83

Dundee North End creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Inverurie Loco Works

0.75

Dundee North End

1.67

allows per match

Inverurie Loco Works

2.00

Dundee North End

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Dundee North End+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverurie Loco Works ↓

Dundee North End →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Inverurie Loco Works or draw

48%

Inverurie Loco Works or Dundee North End

77%

Draw or Dundee North End

75%

Winning margin

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

10%

Dundee North End wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

70%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

34%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

12%

Dundee North End 1+ goals

84%

Dundee North End 2+ goals

54%

Dundee North End 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

33%

Dundee North End (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inverurie Loco Works at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Dundee North End away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inverurie Loco Works attack 0.75 + Dundee North End defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dundee North End attack 1.67 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

25%

level

23%

Dundee North End scores more

52%

Dundee North End at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dundee North End will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Halliday

30'

F. Devine

62'

C. Blacklock← B. Clark

67'

T. Reid← L. Johnstone

67'

J. Ferguson← P. Sludden

76'

C. Dow← C. Thomson

78'

B. Smith← A. Wilson

97'

J. Ferguson↳ F. Devine

101'

C. Blacklock

104'

C. Duncan← N. Meres

104'

S. Gray← C. Dingwall

104'

K. Bednarowski← L. Robertson

105'

L. Simpson← D. Agnew

111'

R. Winter← J. Montgomery

Inverurie

Dundee

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Donaldson

67'▲T. Reid←▼L. Johnstone

78'▲B. Smith←▼A. Wilson

104'▲C. Duncan←▼N. Meres

104'▲S. Gray←▼C. Dingwall

104'▲K. Bednarowski←▼L. Robertson

105'▲L. Simpson←▼D. Agnew

Inverurie Loco Works substitutes

18Reid19Smith16Duncan20Gray14Bednarowski21Simpson15Burnett23Mccafferty

Manager: L. Toshney

62'▲C. Blacklock←▼B. Clark

67'▲J. Ferguson←▼P. Sludden

76'▲C. Dow←▼C. Thomson

111'▲R. Winter←▼J. Montgomery

Dundee North End substitutes

16Blacklock9Ferguson19Dow18Winter14Anderson1Clark

FA Cup: Inverurie Loco Works 1–1 Dundee North End

Inverurie Loco Works and Dundee North End drew 1-1 in FA Cup on October 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Halliday (17'), F. Devine (30'), J. Ferguson (97'), C. Blacklock (101').

The match was played at Harlaw Park in Inverurie.

Inverurie Loco Works vs Dundee North End — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Inverurie Loco Works 1–1 Dundee North End