Inverurie Loco Works 0–1 Broxburn Athletic

Inverurie Loco Works

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Broxburn Athletic

Z. Miller 84'

11/23/2019

FA Cup · 3rd RoundHarlaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inverurie Loco Works18%

×Draw24%

Broxburn Athletic58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverurie Loco WorksExpected goals in this matchBroxburn Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.70

Inverurie Loco Works

0.82

Broxburn Athletic

1.70

Broxburn Athletic creates 107% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

0.75

creates per match

1.40

2.00

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Inverurie Loco Works

0.75

Broxburn Athletic

1.40

allows per match

Inverurie Loco Works

2.00

Broxburn Athletic

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverurie Loco Works ↓

Broxburn Athletic →

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Inverurie Loco Works or draw

42%

Inverurie Loco Works or Broxburn Athletic

76%

Draw or Broxburn Athletic

82%

Winning margin

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

56%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

20%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals

82%

Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals

51%

Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

24%

Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inverurie Loco Works at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Broxburn Athletic away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inverurie Loco Works attack 0.75 + Broxburn Athletic defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Broxburn Athletic attack 1.40 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

18%

level

24%

Broxburn Athletic scores more

58%

Broxburn Athletic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

65'

73'

73'

77'

79'

84'

87'

J. Michie← S. Burnett

89'

G. Binnie← N. Locke

90'

C. Wallace

Inverurie

Broxburn

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Low

73'▲C. Angus←▼N. Gauld

79'▲N. McLean←▼R. Stott

87'▲J. Michie←▼S. Burnett

Inverurie Loco Works substitutes

19Angus16McLean14Michie17Watt15Reid18Cooper1Cook

Manager: B. McNaughton

73'▲R. Nimmo←▼J. Beesley

89'▲G. Binnie←▼N. Locke

Broxburn Athletic substitutes

16Nimmo14Binnie15Gibson18Hamilton17Richards21Donoghue12Ross