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Inverness CT vs ST Johnstone — League Cup 2026

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
A. Stewart 16'
7/21/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inverness CT44%
×Draw26%
ST Johnstone30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.47
ST Johnstone
1.17

Inverness CT creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
2.00
ST Johnstone
1.67

allows per match

Inverness CT
0.67
ST Johnstone
0.94

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
70%
Inverness CT or ST Johnstone
74%
Draw or ST Johnstone
56%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
21%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
77%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
43%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
18%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
69%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
59%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.00 + ST Johnstone defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

ST Johnstone attack 1.67 + Inverness CT defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inverness CT scores more
44%
level
26%
ST Johnstone scores more
30%

Inverness CT at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Stewart
36'
M. Boyes
63'
R. McAlear← M. Tait
63'
L. Chalmers← T. Steven
63'
S. Stanton← K. Fotheringham
63'
A. Mackinnon← D. Wotherspoon
66'
A. Stewart
71'
M. Keir← A. Bavidge
72'
R. Duncan← L. Sole
80'
M. Foulds← M. Boyes
80'
L. Smith← D. Finlayson
85'
J. Chalmers← P. Allan

Possession

50%Inverness

Statistics

InvernessST
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Corners2
8Fouls5
Shots
6On Target1
2Off Target1
0Blocked2
Passing
50%Possession50%
Discipline
8Fouls5
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

League Cup: Inverness CT 1–0 ST Johnstone

Inverness CT beat ST Johnstone 1-0 in League Cup on July 21, 2026.

Goals: A. Stewart (16').

Inverness CT dominated possession with 50% of the ball.

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.