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Inverness CT vs Queen of the South — League #183 2026

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
3/27/2026League #183League #183 · Round 31Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Inverness CT49%
×Draw25%
Queen of the South26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.59
Queen of the South
1.08

Inverness CT creates 47% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
1.71
Queen of the South
1.59

allows per match

Inverness CT
0.57
Queen of the South
1.48

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
74%
Inverness CT or Queen of the South
75%
Draw or Queen of the South
51%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
25%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
80%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
47%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
21%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
66%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
29%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
66%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.71 + Queen of the South defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.59

Queen of the South attack 1.59 + Inverness CT defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inverness CT scores more
49%
level
25%
Queen of the South scores more
26%

Inverness CT at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Inverness CT 1–1 Queen of the South

Inverness CT and Queen of the South drew 1-1 in League #183 on March 27, 2026.

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.