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Inverness CT vs Kilmarnock — FA Cup 2019

Inverness CT
Inverness CTadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
S. Welsh 50'
B. McKay 24' (pen)
K. Vassell 3'
3/10/2023FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inverness CT41%
×Draw26%
Kilmarnock33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.38
Kilmarnock
1.21

Inverness CT creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
1.75
Kilmarnock
1.29

allows per match

Inverness CT
1.13
Kilmarnock
1.00

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
67%
Inverness CT or Kilmarnock
74%
Draw or Kilmarnock
59%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
19%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
75%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
40%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
16%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
70%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
34%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
55%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.75 + Kilmarnock defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kilmarnock attack 1.29 + Inverness CT defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inverness CT scores more
41%
level
26%
Kilmarnock scores more
33%

Inverness CT at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
K. Vassell↳ L. Donnelly
24'
B. McKayPenalty
34'
David Carson
35'
Kyle Vassell
45+2'
A. Power← L. Polworth
46'
Jordan Jones← C. Doidge
50'
S. Welsh
70'
Wallace Duffy
76'
Liam Donnelly
76'
J. Dorsett← J. Wright
76'
F. Murray← R. McKenzie
77'
S. Robinson← L. Chambers
83'
A. Samuels← B. McKay
85'
R. MacGregor← J. Henderson
90+1'
A. Doran← N. Shaw

Shots

12Inverness

Statistics

InvernessKilmarnock
Overview
12Total Shots10
5Corners5
10Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target3
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

Match Recap: Inverness CT vs Kilmarnock

Inverness CT beat Kilmarnock 2-1 in FA Cup on March 10, 2023.

Goals: K. Vassell (3'), B. McKay (24' pen), S. Welsh (50').

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.