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Inverness CT vs East Fife — League Cup 2026

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
East Fife
East Fife
L. Longstaff 120+5' (pen)
M. Bates 120+4' (pen)
H. Kargbo 120+3' (pen)
D. Wotherspoon 120+2' (pen)
G. Shinnie 120+1' (pen)
A. Mackinnon 90+1'
H. Wilson 120+4' (pen)
P. Slattery 120+3' (pen)
R. Peggie 120+1' (pen)
M. Gaffney 34'
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inverness CT76%
×Draw16%
East Fife8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
2.25
East Fife
0.55

Inverness CT creates 309% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
2.00
East Fife
0.42

allows per match

Inverness CT
0.67
East Fife
2.50

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

East Fife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
92%
Inverness CT or East Fife
84%
Draw or East Fife
24%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
52%
East Fife wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
89%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
65%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
39%
East Fife 1+ goals
42%
East Fife 2+ goals
11%
East Fife 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
91%
East Fife (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.00 + East Fife defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

East Fife attack 0.42 + Inverness CT defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Inverness CT scores more
76%
level
16%
East Fife scores more
8%

Inverness CT at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
C. Ross
34'
M. Gaffney↳ C. Ross
59'
N. Boutin
59'
M. Gaffney
62'
H. Kargbo← L. Sole
62'
L. Longstaff← A. Bavidge
62'
D. Wotherspoon← P. Allan
64'
M. Gaffney← M. Gaffney
71'
M. Bates← N. Boutin
74'
M. Bah
81'
Trialist A← L. Newton
85'
A. Mackinnon← R. Duncan
85'
N. Austin← C. Ross
86'
H. Wilson
90+1'
A. Mackinnon
90+4'
M. Bates
120+1'
G. ShinniePenalty
120+1'
R. PeggiePenalty
120+2'
D. WotherspoonPenalty
120+2'
T. Skeen HamiltonMissed penalty
120+3'
H. KargboPenalty
120+3'
P. SlatteryPenalty
120+4'
M. BatesPenalty
120+4'
H. WilsonPenalty
120+5'
L. LongstaffPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inverness CT vs East Fife

Inverness CT and East Fife drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Gaffney (34'), A. Mackinnon (90+1'), G. Shinnie (120+1' pen), R. Peggie (120+1' pen), D. Wotherspoon (120+2' pen), H. Kargbo (120+3' pen), P. Slattery (120+3' pen), M. Bates (120+4' pen), H. Wilson (120+4' pen), L. Longstaff (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.