Inverness CT 1–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

East Fife

11/14/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 8Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inverness CT77%

×Draw15%

East Fife7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.58

Inverness CT

2.38

East Fife

0.58

Inverness CT creates 310% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.25

creates per match

0.42

0.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Inverness CT

2.25

East Fife

0.42

allows per match

Inverness CT

0.75

East Fife

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

93%

Inverness CT or East Fife

85%

Draw or East Fife

23%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

54%

East Fife wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

91%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

68%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

42%

East Fife 1+ goals

44%

East Fife 2+ goals

12%

East Fife 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

91%

East Fife (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.25 + East Fife defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

East Fife attack 0.42 + Inverness CT defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Inverness CT scores more

77%

level

15%

East Fife scores more

7%

Inverness CT at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff