Inverness CT 4–0 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Albion Rovers

C. Harper 53', 41'

W. Duffy 46'

B. McKay 2'

7/19/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Inverness CT76%

×Draw15%

Albion Rovers9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.71

Inverness CT

2.51

Albion Rovers

0.71

Inverness CT creates 254% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

2.25

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Inverness CT

2.25

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Inverness CT

0.75

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Albion Rovers →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

91%

Inverness CT or Albion Rovers

85%

Draw or Albion Rovers

24%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

54%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

92%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

71%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

45%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

51%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

16%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

90%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.25 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.51

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Inverness CT defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Inverness CT scores more

76%

level

15%

Albion Rovers scores more

Inverness CT at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

46'

53'

54'

54'

63'

L. Hyde← S. Allardice

66'

K. Dolan← M. Paton

70'

E. Cairns← D. Mackay

70'

L. Nicolson← C. Harper

71'

D. McCall← S. Roberts

71'

B. Duncan← C. Wilson

75'

A. Testa← C. Reilly

Inverness

Albion

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

Duffy

Deas

⚽2A

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: B. Dodds

54'▲Z. Delaney←▼W. Duffy

54'▲N. Shaw←▼A. Samuels

63'▲L. Hyde←▼S. Allardice

70'▲E. Cairns←▼D. Mackay

70'▲L. Nicolson←▼C. Harper

Inverness CT substitutes

23Delaney22Shaw16Hyde32Cairns33Nicolson14Oakley30Boyd1Ridgers

Manager: B. Reid

66'▲K. Dolan←▼M. Paton

71'▲D. McCall←▼S. Roberts

71'▲B. Duncan←▼C. Wilson

75'▲A. Testa←▼C. Reilly

Albion Rovers substitutes

18Dolan14McCall16Duncan15Testa17Smith

League Cup: Inverness CT 4–0 Albion Rovers

Inverness CT beat Albion Rovers 4-0 in League Cup on July 19, 2022.

Goals: B. McKay (2'), C. Harper (41', 53'), W. Duffy (46').

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.

Inverness CT vs Albion Rovers — League Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Inverness CT 4–0 Albion Rovers