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Interporto vs Ceilândia — Serie D 2018

Interporto
Interporto
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ceilândia
Ceilândia
7/2/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio General Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Interporto25%
×Draw28%
Ceilândia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interporto
0.91
Ceilândia
1.36

Ceilândia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 34 away

creates per match

Interporto
0.69
Ceilândia
1.26

allows per match

Interporto
1.46
Ceilândia
1.12

finishing

Interporto+0.00on par
Ceilândia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interporto ↓

Ceilândia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Interporto or draw
53%
Interporto or Ceilândia
72%
Draw or Ceilândia
75%

Winning margin

Interporto wins by 2+
9%
Ceilândia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Interporto 1+ goals
60%
Interporto 2+ goals
23%
Interporto 3+ goals
6%
Ceilândia 1+ goals
74%
Ceilândia 2+ goals
39%
Ceilândia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Interporto (draw refunded)
35%
Ceilândia (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interporto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Ceilândia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interporto attack 0.69 + Ceilândia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ceilândia attack 1.26 + Interporto defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Interporto scores more
25%
level
28%
Ceilândia scores more
47%

Ceilândia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ceilândia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Interporto vs Ceilândia

Ceilândia beat Interporto 2-0 in Serie D on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio General Sampaio in Porto Nacional, Tocantins.