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Internazionale U20 vs Empoli U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Internazionale U20
Internazionale U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli U20
Empoli U20
10/27/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9KONAMI Youth Development Centre in Memory of Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Internazionale U2056%
×Draw21%
Empoli U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internazionale U20
2.05
Empoli U20
1.24

Internazionale U20 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Internazionale U20
2.11
Empoli U20
1.10

allows per match

Internazionale U20
1.37
Empoli U20
2.00

finishing

Internazionale U20+0.00on par
Empoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U20 ↓

Empoli U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Internazionale U20 or draw
77%
Internazionale U20 or Empoli U20
79%
Draw or Empoli U20
44%

Winning margin

Internazionale U20 wins by 2+
33%
Empoli U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internazionale U20 1+ goals
87%
Internazionale U20 2+ goals
61%
Internazionale U20 3+ goals
33%
Empoli U20 1+ goals
71%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
35%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U20 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Empoli U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U20 attack 2.11 + Empoli U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Empoli U20 attack 1.10 + Internazionale U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internazionale U20 scores more
56%
level
21%
Empoli U20 scores more
23%

Internazionale U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internazionale U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internazionale U20 3 – 1 Empoli U20

Internazionale U20 beat Empoli U20 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at KONAMI Youth Development Centre in Memory of Giacinto Facchetti in Milano.