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Internazionale U19 vs Stade Rennes U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Internazionale U19
Internazionale U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Rennes U19
Stade Rennes U19
8/16/2020UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 8th FinalsCentre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Internazionale U1945%
×Draw29%
Stade Rennes U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internazionale U19
1.24
Stade Rennes U19
0.87

Internazionale U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

creates per match

Internazionale U19
2.14
Stade Rennes U19
0.33

allows per match

Internazionale U19
1.41
Stade Rennes U19
0.33

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par
Stade Rennes U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Stade Rennes U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw
74%
Internazionale U19 or Stade Rennes U19
71%
Draw or Stade Rennes U19
55%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+
20%
Stade Rennes U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals
71%
Internazionale U19 2+ goals
35%
Internazionale U19 3+ goals
13%
Stade Rennes U19 1+ goals
58%
Stade Rennes U19 2+ goals
22%
Stade Rennes U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Stade Rennes U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Stade Rennes U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 2.14 + Stade Rennes U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stade Rennes U19 attack 0.33 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more
45%
level
29%
Stade Rennes U19 scores more
26%

Internazionale U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internazionale U19 1 – 0 Stade Rennes U19

Internazionale U19 beat Stade Rennes U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.