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Internazionale U19 vs Roma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Internazionale U19
Internazionale U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Roma U19
Roma U19
12/3/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 12KONAMI Youth Development Centre in Memory of Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Internazionale U1944%
×Draw24%
Roma U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internazionale U19
1.69
Roma U19
1.42

Internazionale U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

creates per match

Internazionale U19
1.96
Roma U19
1.93

allows per match

Internazionale U19
0.91
Roma U19
1.43

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par
Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Roma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw
68%
Internazionale U19 or Roma U19
76%
Draw or Roma U19
56%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+
23%
Roma U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals
82%
Internazionale U19 2+ goals
50%
Internazionale U19 3+ goals
24%
Roma U19 1+ goals
76%
Roma U19 2+ goals
41%
Roma U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Roma U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.91 · 67 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 1.96 + Roma U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Roma U19 attack 1.93 + Internazionale U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more
44%
level
24%
Roma U19 scores more
32%

Internazionale U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Internazionale U19 1–1 Roma U19

Internazionale U19 and Roma U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at KONAMI Youth Development Centre in Memory of Giacinto Facchetti in Milano.