Internazionale U19 1–0 Real Sociedad U19

Internazionale U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad U19

M. Sarr 64' (pen)

12/12/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6KONAMI Youth Development Centre in Memory of Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Internazionale U1963%

×Draw19%

Real Sociedad U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internazionale U19Expected goals in this matchReal Sociedad U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.21

Internazionale U19

2.41

Real Sociedad U19

1.21

Internazionale U19 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

2.14

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Internazionale U19

2.14

Real Sociedad U19

1.00

allows per match

Internazionale U19

1.41

Real Sociedad U19

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Real Sociedad U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Real Sociedad U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw

82%

Internazionale U19 or Real Sociedad U19

81%

Draw or Real Sociedad U19

37%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

41%

Real Sociedad U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

91%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

69%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad U19 1+ goals

70%

Real Sociedad U19 2+ goals

34%

Real Sociedad U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Real Sociedad U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Real Sociedad U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 2.14 + Real Sociedad U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Real Sociedad U19 attack 1.00 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more

63%

level

19%

Real Sociedad U19 scores more

18%

Internazionale U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Motta

57'

M. Spinacce

57'

M. Cocchi← M. Motta

64'

M. SarrPenalty

65'

Aimar Olarra← Jon Garro

70'

L. Di Maggio

74'

Lander Astiazarán← Martín Arruti

76'

I. Kamate← M. Spinaccè

80'

D. Ramirez

85'

A. M. Sarr

85'

J. Martin

87'

J. Żuberek← D. Quieto

87'

L. Bovo← M. Sarr

Internazionale

Real

1

2

3

4

5

8

▼

6

10

7

11

▼

9

1

6

13

▼

15

2

4

8

14

9

⚽

▼

Sarr

11

▼

Quieto

19

▼

Spinaccè

Manager: C. Chivu

57'▲M. Cocchi←▼M. Motta

76'▲I. Kamate←▼M. Spinaccè

87'▲J. Żuberek←▼D. Quieto

87'▲L. Bovo←▼M. Sarr

Internazionale U19 substitutes

3Cocchi10Kamate18Żuberek5Bovo16Guercio12Tommasi7Zárate

Manager: Mikel Llorente

65'▲Aimar Olarra←▼Jon Garro

74'▲Lander Astiazarán←▼Martín Arruti

Real Sociedad U19 substitutes

17Olarra19Astiazarán18Garcia16Otadui13Jiménez14Samuyiwa12Behobide