Internazionale U19 2–2 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Internazionale U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Milan U19

5/9/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 33Centro Sportivo Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Internazionale U1953%

×Draw24%

Milan U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internazionale U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

Internazionale U19

1.69

Milan U19

1.02

Internazionale U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

1.96

creates per match

1.13

0.91

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Internazionale U19

1.96

Milan U19

1.13

allows per match

Internazionale U19

0.91

Milan U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw

77%

Internazionale U19 or Milan U19

76%

Draw or Milan U19

47%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

29%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

82%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

50%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

24%

Milan U19 1+ goals

64%

Milan U19 2+ goals

27%

Milan U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.91 · 67 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 1.96 + Milan U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Milan U19 attack 1.13 + Internazionale U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more

53%

level

24%

Milan U19 scores more

23%

Internazionale U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff