Internazionale U19 3–1 Lazio U19: Result & Stats

Internazionale U19

FT

3 – 1

Lazio U19

3/7/2021

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 13Stadio Ernesto Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internazionale U1958%

×Draw22%

Lazio U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internazionale U19Expected goals in this matchLazio U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.00

Internazionale U19

1.88

Lazio U19

1.00

Internazionale U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

1.96

creates per match

1.09

0.91

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Internazionale U19

1.96

Lazio U19

1.09

allows per match

Internazionale U19

0.91

Lazio U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw

80%

Internazionale U19 or Lazio U19

78%

Draw or Lazio U19

42%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

34%

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

85%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

56%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

29%

Lazio U19 1+ goals

63%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

26%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.91 · 67 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 1.96 + Lazio U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.88

Lazio U19 attack 1.09 + Internazionale U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more

58%

level

22%

Lazio U19 scores more

20%

Internazionale U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Internazionale U19 3–1 Lazio U19

Internazionale U19 beat Lazio U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Ernesto Breda in Sesto San Giovanni.

Internazionale U19 vs Lazio U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Campionato Primavera - 1: Internazionale U19 3–1 Lazio U19