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International Leipzig vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

International Leipzig
International Leipzig
FT
0 – 1
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
8/7/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 1Hafenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

International Leipzig40%
×Draw22%
Einheit Rudolstadt37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

International Leipzig
1.78
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 82 away

creates per match

International Leipzig
1.44
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

International Leipzig
2.00
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

International Leipzig+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

International Leipzig ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

International Leipzig or draw
63%
International Leipzig or Einheit Rudolstadt
78%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
60%

Winning margin

International Leipzig wins by 2+
21%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

International Leipzig 1+ goals
83%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
53%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
26%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
82%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
51%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

International Leipzig (draw refunded)
52%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

International Leipzig at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

International Leipzig attack 1.44 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + International Leipzig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

International Leipzig scores more
40%
level
22%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
37%

International Leipzig at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "International Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: International Leipzig 0–1 Einheit Rudolstadt

Einheit Rudolstadt beat International Leipzig 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Hafenstadion in Torgau.