International Leipzig 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena II

International Leipzig

FT

2 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena II

8/15/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 1Hafenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

International Leipzig34%

×Draw22%

Carl Zeiss Jena II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

International LeipzigExpected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.89

International Leipzig

1.65

Carl Zeiss Jena II

1.89

Carl Zeiss Jena II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.44

creates per match

1.77

2.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

International Leipzig

1.44

Carl Zeiss Jena II

1.77

allows per match

International Leipzig

2.00

Carl Zeiss Jena II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

International Leipzig+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

International Leipzig ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

International Leipzig or draw

56%

International Leipzig or Carl Zeiss Jena II

78%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II

66%

Winning margin

International Leipzig wins by 2+

17%

Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

International Leipzig 1+ goals

81%

International Leipzig 2+ goals

49%

International Leipzig 3+ goals

23%

Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals

85%

Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals

56%

Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

International Leipzig (draw refunded)

44%

Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

International Leipzig at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

International Leipzig attack 1.44 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + International Leipzig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

International Leipzig scores more

34%

level

22%

Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more

44%

Carl Zeiss Jena II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff