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International Leipzig vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

International Leipzig
International Leipzig
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
5/14/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28Hafenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

International Leipzig37%
×Draw22%
Budissa Bautzen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

International Leipzig
1.78
Budissa Bautzen
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

International Leipzig
1.44
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

International Leipzig
2.00
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

International Leipzig+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

International Leipzig ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

International Leipzig or draw
59%
International Leipzig or Budissa Bautzen
78%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
63%

Winning margin

International Leipzig wins by 2+
19%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

International Leipzig 1+ goals
83%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
53%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
26%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
85%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
56%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

International Leipzig (draw refunded)
47%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

International Leipzig at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

International Leipzig attack 1.44 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.78

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + International Leipzig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

International Leipzig scores more
37%
level
22%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
41%

Budissa Bautzen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: International Leipzig vs Budissa Bautzen

Budissa Bautzen beat International Leipzig 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Hafenstadion in Torgau.