Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

International Leipzig vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

International Leipzig
International Leipzig
CANC
12:00
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
6/18/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 38Hafenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

International Leipzig33%
×Draw23%
Bischofswerdaer FV44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

International Leipzig
1.51
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.79

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

International Leipzig
1.44
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

International Leipzig
2.00
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

International Leipzig+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

International Leipzig ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

International Leipzig or draw
56%
International Leipzig or Bischofswerdaer FV
77%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
67%

Winning margin

International Leipzig wins by 2+
15%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

International Leipzig 1+ goals
78%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
44%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
19%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
83%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
53%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

International Leipzig (draw refunded)
42%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

International Leipzig at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

International Leipzig attack 1.44 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + International Leipzig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

International Leipzig scores more
33%
level
23%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
44%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: International Leipzig host Bischofswerdaer FV

June 18, 2022: International Leipzig take on Bischofswerdaer FV in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

International Leipzig host Bischofswerdaer FV at Hafenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.