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Internacional vs Cuiaba — Serie A 2026

Internacional
Internacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
9/10/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 26Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Internacional50%
×Draw28%
Cuiaba23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.38
Cuiaba
0.84

Internacional creates 64% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 76 away

creates per match

Internacional
1.62
Cuiaba
0.79

allows per match

Internacional
0.89
Cuiaba
1.14

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
77%
Internacional or Cuiaba
72%
Draw or Cuiaba
50%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
24%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
75%
Internacional 2+ goals
40%
Internacional 3+ goals
16%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
57%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
21%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
68%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.89 · 161 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.62 + Cuiaba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cuiaba attack 0.79 + Internacional defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional scores more
50%
level
28%
Cuiaba scores more
23%

Internacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional vs Cuiaba

Internacional beat Cuiaba 1-0 in Serie A on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.