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Internacional vs America Mineiro — Serie A 2026

Internacional
Internacional
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
11/1/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 31Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Internacional54%
×Draw25%
America Mineiro21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
1.60
America Mineiro
0.88

Internacional creates 82% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 76 away

creates per match

Internacional
1.62
America Mineiro
0.87

allows per match

Internacional
0.89
America Mineiro
1.59

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
79%
Internacional or America Mineiro
75%
Draw or America Mineiro
46%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
29%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
80%
Internacional 2+ goals
47%
Internacional 3+ goals
22%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
59%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
22%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
72%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.89 · 161 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 1.62 + America Mineiro defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Internacional defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional scores more
54%
level
25%
America Mineiro scores more
21%

Internacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Internacional vs America Mineiro

Internacional and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.