Internacional U17 vs Vasco U17

Internacional U17

Preview

20:00

Vasco U17

8/22/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 13

41%

Vasco U17

model favours

35%24%41%

79% of Vasco U17’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

62%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Internacional U1735%

×Draw24%

Vasco U1741%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional U17Expected goals in this matchVasco U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.63

Internacional U17

1.50

Vasco U17

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.41

creates per match

1.73

1.53

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Internacional U17

1.41

Vasco U17

1.73

allows per match

Internacional U17

1.53

Vasco U17

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional U17+0.00on par

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Internacional U17 or draw

59%

Internacional U17 or Vasco U17

76%

Draw or Vasco U17

65%

Winning margin

Internacional U17 wins by 2+

17%

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Internacional U17 1+ goals

78%

Internacional U17 2+ goals

44%

Internacional U17 3+ goals

19%

Vasco U17 1+ goals

80%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

48%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)

46%

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional U17 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional U17 attack 1.41 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Internacional U17 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional U17 scores more

35%

level

24%

Vasco U17 scores more

41%

Vasco U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 80% of Internacional U17’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

LWLWL

U17

LLDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff