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Internacional U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Internacional U17
Internacional U17
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
Unknown 47'
G. Miranda 23'
G. Soares 19'
8/13/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 7Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Internacional U1733%
×Draw25%
Sao Paulo U1742%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional U17
1.35
Sao Paulo U17
1.56

Sao Paulo U17 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Internacional U17
1.41
Sao Paulo U17
1.59

allows per match

Internacional U17
1.53
Sao Paulo U17
1.29

finishing

Internacional U17+0.00on par
Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Internacional U17 or draw
58%
Internacional U17 or Sao Paulo U17
75%
Draw or Sao Paulo U17
67%

Winning margin

Internacional U17 wins by 2+
15%
Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Internacional U17 1+ goals
74%
Internacional U17 2+ goals
39%
Internacional U17 3+ goals
15%
Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
79%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
46%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)
44%
Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional U17 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional U17 attack 1.41 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Internacional U17 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional U17 scores more
33%
level
25%
Sao Paulo U17 scores more
42%

Sao Paulo U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
G. Soares
23'
G. Miranda
47'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internacional U17 0 – 3 Sao Paulo U17

Sao Paulo U17 beat Internacional U17 3-0 in Brasileiro U17 on August 13, 2024.

Goals: G. Soares (19'), G. Miranda (23'), ? (47').

The match was played at Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira in São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul.