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Internacional U17 vs Flamengo RJ U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Internacional U17
Internacional U17
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
4/3/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Morada dos Quero-Queros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Internacional U1754%
×Draw24%
Flamengo RJ U1722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional U17
1.71
Flamengo RJ U17
1.00

Internacional U17 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Internacional U17
1.67
Flamengo RJ U17
1.00

allows per match

Internacional U17
1.00
Flamengo RJ U17
1.75

finishing

Internacional U17+0.00on par
Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Internacional U17 or draw
78%
Internacional U17 or Flamengo RJ U17
76%
Draw or Flamengo RJ U17
46%

Winning margin

Internacional U17 wins by 2+
30%
Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Internacional U17 1+ goals
82%
Internacional U17 2+ goals
51%
Internacional U17 3+ goals
24%
Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
63%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
26%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)
71%
Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional U17 attack 1.67 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.00 + Internacional U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Internacional U17 scores more
54%
level
24%
Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
22%

Internacional U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Internacional U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Internacional U17 2–2 Flamengo RJ U17

Internacional U17 and Flamengo RJ U17 drew 2-2 in Copa do Brasil U17 on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Morada dos Quero-Queros in Alvorada, Rio Grande do Sul.