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Internacional U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Internacional U17
Internacional U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
7/14/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Internacional U1753%
×Draw23%
Bahia U1723%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional U17
1.79
Bahia U17
1.10

Internacional U17 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Internacional U17
1.41
Bahia U17
0.67

allows per match

Internacional U17
1.53
Bahia U17
2.17

finishing

Internacional U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Internacional U17 or draw
77%
Internacional U17 or Bahia U17
77%
Draw or Bahia U17
47%

Winning margin

Internacional U17 wins by 2+
30%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Internacional U17 1+ goals
83%
Internacional U17 2+ goals
53%
Internacional U17 3+ goals
26%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
67%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
30%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)
70%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional U17 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional U17 attack 1.41 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Internacional U17 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Internacional U17 scores more
53%
level
23%
Bahia U17 scores more
23%

Internacional U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Internacional U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Internacional U17 1–0 Bahia U17

Internacional U17 beat Bahia U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 14, 2026.