Internacional U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17

Internacional U17

Preview

20:00

Atlético Mineiro U17

9/22/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 18

39%

Atlético Mineiro U17

model favours

38%23%39%

Atlético Mineiro U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

66%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Internacional U1738%

×Draw23%

Atlético Mineiro U1739%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional U17Expected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.70

Internacional U17

1.68

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

1.41

creates per match

1.86

1.53

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Internacional U17

1.41

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.86

allows per match

Internacional U17

1.53

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional U17+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Internacional U17 or draw

61%

Internacional U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17

77%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17

62%

Winning margin

Internacional U17 wins by 2+

19%

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Internacional U17 1+ goals

81%

Internacional U17 2+ goals

50%

Internacional U17 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals

82%

Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals

51%

Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)

49%

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional U17 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional U17 attack 1.41 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.68

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + Internacional U17 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Internacional U17 scores more

38%

level

23%

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more

39%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 100% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches
Both teams score in 80% of Internacional U17’s matches
75% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 75% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

LWLWL

U17

DLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff