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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Internacional U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Internacional U17
Internacional U17
Unknown 60', 56', 6'
Unknown 90+2', 75', 31', 10'
8/6/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6Arena Gregorão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1758%
×Draw20%
Internacional U1722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.33
Internacional U17
1.39

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.47
Internacional U17
1.15

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.63
Internacional U17
2.20

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Internacional U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Internacional U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
78%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Internacional U17
80%
Draw or Internacional U17
42%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
37%
Internacional U17 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
90%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
67%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
41%
Internacional U17 1+ goals
75%
Internacional U17 2+ goals
40%
Internacional U17 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
72%
Internacional U17 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Internacional U17 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.47 + Internacional U17 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.33

Internacional U17 attack 1.15 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
58%
level
20%
Internacional U17 scores more
22%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
10'
31'
56'
60'
75'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Internacional U17

Internacional U17 beat Atlético Mineiro U17 4-3 in Brasileiro U17 on August 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (6', 10', 31', 56', 60', 75', 90+2').

The match was played at Arena Gregorão in Contagem, Minas Gerais.